More downside was true but limited. So can BTC still hit $ 70,000 ?!
Fast forward, and as I preferred, BTC moved lower. It fell below $ 52,625, bottomed at $ 50,406 on March 25, but never hit $ 43,000 +/- $ 1,000. Instead, it rose back to $ 60,000. Hence my idea would that BTC would see the low $ 40,000 if below $ 52,625 was wrong. But as I said at the beginning of my update, BTC hasn’t moved much in the past two months (it hit $ 58,000 on February 21 and today, April 6, it’s still at $ 58,000). Unfortunately, a sideways price move is the most difficult to interpret, especially from an EWP perspective, as it leaves the door open to many options. But at some point an option will be chosen by the market, the smoke will clear and the subsequent path will then be much easier to predict, track and trade. As usual, we can only “anticipate, monitor and adjust”.
So what’s next? With the current and additional pricing data, I now prefer the larger end diagonal (ED) as shown in blue in Figure 1A. EDs are difficult to forecast price structures because they consist of five waves, most of which consist of three overlapping waves up and down: the green a, b, c of the larger (red) waves i, ii, iii, (and iv and v ). As you can see, the red wave i rally of the black (major) 4 low made in late February was three waves (green a, b, c), with the c wave being made up of five smaller waves (gray) waves i , ii, iii, iv and v). The subsequent decline, red wave II, was also three waves. BTC is most likely in red wave III, which is also divided into three green (a, b, c) waves. Wave-a completed, wave-b is likely still going on and will soon be followed by green wave-c followed by ideally $ 66050-72175 depending on the exact Fibonacci extension it will have. From there a wave IV and a V await, but let’s focus on the potential wave III for now, as the internal pricing structure is complicated enough. Correct!? Well, that’s the nature of EDs: difficult to predict, track, and act as there are few hard and fast rules (see here for a summary)
The bearish option is down the diagonal to complete Black Major 4. See Figure 1B. The market has left this major 4 option on the table but is on the verge of being invalidated. A daily closing price above last week’s high (USD 60062) will favor the upward diagonal. A daily close below $ 53,900 is now required to shift the odds in favor of this bearish option.
While BTC hasn’t done much in the past two months, it will soon be in its hand telling us which of the options it will prefer: the breakout is bullish and ultimately targets the low USD 70,000 while a breakdown is bearish and up the low $ 40s again before hitting $ 70,000.