NEW YORK – The global coffee market should show a surplus of 5.26 million 60kg bags in the 2020/21 season (October to September), over a revised surplus of 4.14 million bags in the 2019/20 season that International Coffee Organization (ICO) said in a report on Tuesday.

In its first forecast for the 2020/21 season, the ICO said production should reach 171.89 million bags, 1.9% more than the previous season, while consumption was 166.62 million bags, 1.3 % higher.

“Global coffee demand is expected to recover only to a limited extent as social distancing measures persist and the global economy slowly picks up,” the ICO said, adding that the surge in demand will not be enough to keep the market balanced improve.

“This could limit further increases in coffee prices over the course of the coffee year unless demand recovers faster than currently expected,” said the organization.

Analysts have also forecast a large surplus for 2020/21. According to a survey by Reuters, the surplus is 8 million bags. – Reuters